Three Key Factors of Trump’s Policy
1. “Maximum Pressure” Strategy
Trump is in a unique position: not worried about his future political career, he has unprecedented freedom of action. His favorite business tactic is well-known — first create maximum pressure, then negotiate from a position of strength. We already see this in international politics, and markets are responding with increased volatility.
2. Critical “Window of Opportunity”
The Trump administration has about a year and a half until the midterm Congressional elections (November 2026). During this time, they need to implement as much of their economic agenda as possible and show results. Expect concentrated and radical economic decisions that may both support certain sectors and create turbulence for the market as a whole.
3. Balancing on the Edge
The key risk is the administration’s ability to maintain balance between radical decisions and preventing a market crash. The art of management will lie in the ability to balance between extreme positions, something that very few experienced politicians have managed to achieve.
The Hidden Threat Nobody Talks About
Trump’s political opponents, especially neoconservatives, haven’t given up — they’ve merely stepped into the shadows and are accumulating resources to counter him. Paradoxically, some actions of the current administration actually play into their hands, creating grounds for future criticism.
If Trump’s team fails to keep the situation under control (and opponents will do everything possible to ensure this happens), markets may experience a much deeper correction than what we’re seeing now.
What to Expect?
The next two quarters will be a period of extremely high volatility. The worst-case scenario is when the pressure of Trump’s economic policy coincides with technical market weakness and is amplified by internal political confrontation.